As Democrats threaten to shut down the government at midnight tonight (Friday) without passing the 2018 budget, $7.8 Trillion hangs in the balance (gains made since the 2016 Presidential election). The following monthly charts show prices of the Dow 30, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Indices as at 12:15 pm ET today, with the blue horizontal line marking election-day prices. A lot of investments (including pension funds and 401K accounts) in the U.S. stock markets are at stake…stay tuned for what market chaos may await next Monday. If only my ancient crystal ball had come with automatic upgrades… ...
Although the EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories dropped for a ninth straight week and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected, U.S. production outweighed positive news. But did yesterday price action change anything in the technical picture of black gold? Yesterday’s report showed that crude inventories dropped by 6.9 million barrels easily beating expectations for a decrease of 3.5 million barrels. This significant decline was mainly led by a record drawdown of 4.2 million barrels at the U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. What’s interesting, it was the largest weekly draw since 2004. Despite this bullish fact a...
As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3). When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the macro markets. Let’s take a checkup on each Amigo and consider some implications as well. Amigo 1: Stocks vs. Gold Using the S&P 500 as an example, stocks/gold ratios are still trending up on the daily time frame. The big picture allows for higher levels before this Amigo stops riding a...
I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention or not, but this was one hell of a week for Hong Kong shares and especially for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index which rose a truly a impressive 5.7% on the week. That’s the best week since July 2016. Look at the financials (the top 10 performers on the H-share gauge were all financials): The broader Hang Seng rose again on Friday to a fresh record. This is its sixth straight week of gains: And the Southbound flows were on fire again as mainland investors bought nearly $1 billion of Hong Kong stocks on Friday – that’s the most since December 2016. You really should keep an eye ...
Equities remain historically, incredibly, and very elevated. Any indicator shows it. Below are the Bollinger Bands and the Dow Composite, which is mashed right up against its highest boundary. Although Dennis can still grace us with his expert guidance during these confusing times. The NASDAQ Composite isn’t any different. The small caps offer a little ray of hope, as they remain under a broken trendline. For myself, I am doing OK, with short positions focused in real estate, financials, and energy. Stretch Armstrong is holding tough, but let’s not forget – – cut him open, and it’s still just a bunch of red goo inside....
The last couple of days have been tumultuous and this is reflected by the headlines in the media. In an article on the website of The Guardian, we read: Bitcoin has all the hallmarks of a classic speculative bubble and even after almost halving in value in a matter of weeks it still has further to fall, according to a leading team of economists. As regulators in South Korea again signalled on Thursday that they were considering a ban on cryptocurrency exchanges, Capital Economics also dismissed claims that bitcoin and its imitators could replace established currencies as “rubbish”. Bitcoin, which rose to more than $19,000 in December, rec...
U.K. rising consumer prices plunged retail sales to the lowest since Brexit referendum. The retail sales dropped 1.5 percent in December from 1 percent gain recorded in November, the Office for National Statistics reported on Friday. This was the slowest sales in 18 months and another sign that the rising inflation rate amid weak wage growth has started hurting consumer spending. Sales rose just 1.9 percent in 2017, the slowest growth in four years. Economists had predicted 0.8 percent decline for the month but expected that the retail sector would at least expand by 3 percent in 2017. “A sharp fall in UK retail sales during December has ro...
Today’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 150.3, up 2.7 from the previous week and at another record high. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.66%, up from 2.19% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 4.5, up from the previous week. “Why So Many (in the West) Are Pissed Off” ECRI’s recent self published article recounts two thousand years of world GDP history, reminding readers that India and China have been the winners throughout. The West has only made a dent in world GDP since the Industrial Revolution. In order for the...
For this column, even though there is a chance the U.S. government may shut down today, we will not wade into those waters at this time. Instead, we will let D.C. be D.C. After all, even if the government does shut down, it doesn’t take away the positive results we’ve seen overall so far in Q4 earnings season. Yesterday after the bell we saw good Q4 headlines from companies of diverse industries, from Big Tech play IBM (IBM – Free Report) to Transportation’s Canadian Pacific (CP – Free Report) . Although the devil is in the details for IBM in the quarter just passed, we still see beats on the top and bottom lines and gro...
Our previous Stock Exchange asked the question “will market sentiment turn bearish soon?” We reviewed the continuing market rally, and warned against complacency in trading. If you missed it, a glance at your news feed will show that the key points remain relevant. This Week: Are You Still On The Sidelines? The stock market has been “off to the races” to start 2018, and that is creating an uncomfortably eerie feeling for many traders. Perhaps still emotionally scarred from the terrible start to 2016, some traders are missing out on the gains, choosing to instead sit on the sidelines. According to famous hedge fund manager, Victor Nied...