(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Peru (+6.4%), Russia (+5.9%), and Colombia (+5.7%) have outperformed this week, while Egypt (-2.5%), Qatar (+0.1%), and South Africa (+0.1%) have underperformed.To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 3.5% this week while MSCI DM rose 2.2%. In the EM local currency bond space, Peru (10-year yield -23 bp), Indonesia (-15 bp), and Mexico (-12 bp) have outperformed this week, while Argentina (10-year yield +21 bp), Czech Republic (+14 bp), and Turkey (+9 bp) have underperformed.To put this in better context, the 10-year UST yield rose 6 bp to 2.47%. In the EM FX s...
BALTIMORE – The big news today is that the Dow has hit a new record of over 25,000. We’ll get to that in a minute… we’re still looking over our shoulders at last year’s performance. Let’s see, the top-performing U.S. stock market sector last year was technology. An investment in the top 100 Nasdaq stocks went up 34%. Then came a list of also-rans – from the Dow (up 28%)… to the S&P 500 (up 22%)… to the energy sector (down 4%)… all the way down to the worst-performing sector, natural gas (down 44%). Our Reversion to the Mean (R2tM) portfolio gained 33% last year – not bad for such a simple strategy. Buy Low, Sell Hig...
Per the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management, the ISM Manufacturing Index surged to reach its highest settlement in the last two years. Such an increase was made possible by an increase in factory activity. Moreover, economists feel that the new tax code would also help manufacturing activity in 2018 as it positively impacts business spending. Further, sectors that showed maximum gains included transportation, heavy engineering and machinery and fabricated metals among others. Under such conditions, investing in mutual funds from such sectors appears prudent. Let’s look at a few such funds from the Fidelity portfolio that w...
Just a trio of charts with a few words on each. Oil has had a tremendous rise for half a year; I think crude could get as high as $67 or so, but it seems to me it’s time for a temporary breather and small retrace. Gold simply can’t seem to make up its mind. As prices march toward that apex, it needs to resolve one way or another. Gold’s volatility is started to resemble the VIX. The broad market in general is at Trumpian loftiness. This is the ultra-leverage S&P ETF below, and as the long-term trendlines indicator it is – – in sharp contract to what they were saying on CNBC yesterday – – “cheap” (and, yes, they said it ...
Last year was an objectively bad year for American workers. The latest payroll figures from the BLS for December 2017 fill out what was an awful picture. According to its Establishment Survey, the data that’s taken as the definitive source on the US labor market, total payrolls expanded by 2.055 million in 2017. That annual increase isn’t being lamented, however, it is widely celebrated as proof the economy is in good if not great shape – though much can depend on how you view the current occupant of the White House. The rough condition of the overall economy and its effect on jobs in America really has nothing to do with politics aside...
Since we questioned the reality of the ramp in Ripple yesterday, the so-called ‘bankstercoin’ has collapsed – erasing most of its 2018 gains… It appears that crypto investors are rotating back to the ‘safety’ of Bitcoin as Ethereum and Litecoin are also seeing selling pressure today…...
Business activity growth softened to a 7-month low in Dec. according to Markit. ISM expansion was less than expected. The Institute for Supply Management reported the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at a solid 55.9. Economists, expected a rise of 0.2 percentage points to robust 57.6.? Markit Services PMI Unlike the ISM, Markit provides much more commentary on it Services PMI Report. Key Findings Slower expansion in business activity in December Upturn in new orders remains relatively strong Business confidence slips further to a 15-month low Service Sector Business Activity Markit Composite PMI vs. GDP Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson...
HEADLINES: +143,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate rose +0.1% from 8.0% to 8.1% Here are the headlines on wages and the chronic heightened underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: rose +43,000 from 5.265 million to 5.308 million Part time for economic reasons: rose +64,000 from 4.851 million to 4.915 million Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: rose +0.1% from 79.0% to 79.1% Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $.0.07 from $22.23 to $22.30, up +2.3% YoY. (Note: you may be reading different information about wa...
Shares of Fitbit (FIT) are in focus in morning trading following a cautious report from an analyst at Morgan Stanley, who lowered his price target on Fitbit ahead of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. In contrast, Roth Capital initiated coverage of the stock, saying that the value of Fitbit’s loyal installed base has been “largely lost on the Street. “LACKLUSTER” CHECKS: Morgan Stanley analyst Yuuji Anderson and his team maintained an Equal Weight rating on Fitbit, but cut the price target to $6 from $7. In a note to clients, Anderson said “lackluster” checks by his firm showed that discounts on th...