Asian markets were a little nervous in todays trading, ahead of Fed decision. Despite the strength seen in oil, markets saw prices lower loose their early strength as the day wore on. In China the loans nominal grew from an expected 800bn to 1.1tln and hinder any further progress and even turned sentiment negative in late trading. Mainland Shanghai closed the day down over 1.2% whereas the Hong Kong index held in a little better declining 0.6%. Not that encouraging really as both indices closed the day on their lows. The Nikkei also lost ground but held in relatively well considering, eventually closing down just 0.3%. The Yen continues to dr...
By Paul Deer They say only two things are certain in life: death and taxes. Unfortunately, sometimes the two come hand in hand, especially if you haven’t planned ahead. Enter taxes – and your estate plan. Currently, the estate tax only impacts those who are leaving behind more than $5.6 million in 2018. This applies to every taxpayer, so conceivably, a married couple can protect $11.2 million from the estate tax. Because of this, most people aren’t affected by the estate tax – but those who are impacted can pay at least a 40% rate. One of the main reasons people create a plan that considers taxes is because the taxes your heirs may e...
Cliffhanger indeed… Video length: 00:04:22 From Rand Paul’s somewhat confusing tweets, the divergence between bond and bullion and the dollar and stocks is clear… On the day, Nasdaq and Small Caps were worst, The Dow best and Trannies tumbled into the red into the close… VIX was trampled early on but after Rand Paul’s comments started to roll higher… And, once again ‘High Tax’ companies continue to underperform ‘Low Tax’ companies… Notably a big divergence is starting again in the Momentum and Value factors… Despite the notable rally after Rand Paul’s comments, trea...
An Astonishing Statistic As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the trading days immediately ahead of FOMC announcements was quite remarkable in recent decades. We are referring to the Seaonax event study of the average (or seasonal) performance across a very large number of events, namely the past 160 monetary policy announcements and the 10 trading days surrounding them. It looks as follows: We have highlighted the period of ...
Over the past few months, a number of solar stocks have been mulling over plans to exit the public equity markets. Interestingly, a majority of them are based outside the United States. Yesterday, Canada-based Canadian Solar, Inc.’s (CSIQ – Free Report) CEO Shawn Qu announced plans to delist the company from the U.S. stock market. Details of Canadian Solar’s Buyout Plans Qu has offered to buy all of Canadian Solar’s outstanding common shares for $18.47 per share, reflecting more than a 7.1% premium over Dec 8 closing price of $17.25. The total value of this buyout is $1.07 billion. Qu is of the opinion that the deal will be ben...
The Yellen Fed has been painfully slow to ratchet rates up to levels required by the US economy. As “Davidson’s” chart below shows that historically the Fed Fund rates had been set ~.2% away from the 10yr. Treasury. Today that difference is ~1%. It’s far too early to quantify exactly the ramifications of this but one has to wonder: Has the prolonged recovery (now 9 years) been due to the artificially low rates Has the fact the recovery was arguably the most anemic in US history also due to artificially low rates Is the fact the US economy is now accelerating due to rates finally (and grudgingly) being raised? There has been an unpre...
If you glance at the indices, you wouldn’t realize the market is actually fairing poorly today. Breadth is actually negative VIX is trading 3.5% higher The percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average is declining. Technology is trading lower Small Caps are in the red YET… SPX is trading 8 points higher, and the Dow is trading 150 points higher due to the spike in high priced stocks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Boeing (BA). Perhaps we might see some end of the year profit taking, and if we do, the list of short setups below could provide some excellent trading opportunities. For now we have the diverge...
Ronald Coase was one of the few economists who was easy to admire. There are and have been a few out there, and it was Coase by and large leading the critique of the increasingly detached state of economics (really Economics). In his 1991 Nobel Prize acceptance speech, he was as usual blunt in his admonishments, saying, “I have made no innovations in high theory. My contribution to economics has been to urge the inclusion in our analysis of features of the economic system so obvious that…they have tended to be overlooked.” In other words, long before anyone else realized it Coase had seen economics transform from a discipline centered o...
Bitcoin Futures Overshadow Record Day For Stocks Monday saw the Dow reach its 66th all-time high this year which is 3 shy of tying the record. The S&P 500 was up 0.32% and the VIX was down 2.51% to 9.34. Even with the market putting an explanation point on its great year, Bitcoin stole the headlines its futures trading launched. Bitcoin futures were up 19% in the first day of trading as the cryptocurrency is now at $16,600. The total market cap of all the cryptocurrencies has reached $456 billion. There are reports that people are taking out mortgages to buy bitcoin as it reaches the mania stage. It’s an unusual bubble because everyone...
Bitcoin — the hottest trade of 2017 — is now easily available to individuals and businesses courtesy of the launch of the first futures contract on Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE – Free Report) in the evening of December 10. Bitcoin futures, expiring in January, spiked more than 20% to a record high of $18,000 in just four hours of its debut and triggered a so-called circuit breaker two times. Under CBOE rules, the circuit breaker has been designed to reduce price volatility wherein 10% movement in prices triggers a two-minute trading halt while a 20% move triggers a five-minute halt. On the first full day of trading, bitcoi...