Crude oil prices fell as the US Department of Energy upgraded its 2018 production forecast while downgrading demand expectations. Meanwhile, API inventory data revealed an outsized drop in crude stockpiles (-2.7 m/b) but paired it with a larger build in refined product storage compared with what is expected from upcoming EIA statistics. If these mirror the API result, deeper losses may follow. Gold prices edged higher as the US Dollar pulled back alongside Treasury bond yields, boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. The move appears to reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming FOMC announcement. Th...
Asian indices are lower today as crude oil futures steadied and market participants awaited cues from major central banks. The Shanghai Composite is off 0.17% while the Hang Seng is down 0.24%. The Nikkei 225 is trading down by 0.26%. Overnight, the US stocks closed higher amid growing optimism that Republican lawmakers would be able to revamp the corporate tax system. Back home, India share markets have opened the day marginally lower after India suffered a macroeconomic setback with retail inflation unexpectedly accelerating to a 15-month high. The BSE Sensex is trading lower by 56 points while the NSE Nifty is trading lower by 1...
USDCAD extended its upside movement from 1.2623 to as high as 1.2892. Near-term support is at 1.2804. As long as the price is above this level, the upside movement could be expected to continue and further rise to test 1.2916 resistance is possible. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.2804 support will indicate that the upside movement is complete, then another fall towards 1.2623 support could be seen....
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but rolled over as the market plunged towards the $57 handle underneath. If we can break down below here, I think that the market is probably going to test the uptrend line just below, so I think that more softness may enter the marketplace, but ultimately, it’s not until we break down below the $55 level that I would be concerned about the uptrend. In the meantime, I think you are going to need to see some type of bounce below to take advantage of a continuation of the uptrend. Because of this, patience will be necessary going forward, esp...
The big news was out already at the October meeting. The ECB will halve the volume of its bond-buys in January to 30 billion euros per month and the program will run through September 2018. Draghi left the door open to what happens afterward, and that was a dovish sign that sent the euro down. Will Draghi try to repeat the same trick now? He may certainly try. Euro-zone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, press conference at 13:30. Since that previous ECB decision we have seen weak inflation reads, especially with core CPI slipping to 0.9%, This vindicated Draghi’s dovishness. But come December, no big announcements are predicted. What w...
On Tuesday, share markets in India opened in red and ended on a weak note. The BSE Sensex closed lower by 228 points to end at 33,227 while the broader NSE Nifty ended the day lower by 82 points to close at 10,240. Among BSE sectoral indices, realty index fell the most by 1.6%, followed by power stocks at 1.3%. Cipla and Coal India were among the top losers. Top Stocks in Action Today Reliance Industries share price is likely to be in focus today after the company said it is weighing an initial public offering (IPO) of mobile operator Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd, after a $31 billion investment spree that shook-up the country’s wireless ma...
Illusive tax reconciliations are unlikely to be any sort of panacea for the nervous money managers of Wall Street; but are essential for the markets; merely to have them hold together (not necessarily advance much) after the event. There is however a bigger risk – two of them, actually. With a presumption that FIFO will not be a required for Capital Gains, that takes us to the next issue. That’s a concern (leaked if valid by Goldman in the final moments of today’s trading session) that Corporate tax rates, cut purportedly to the 21% level (fine); won’t be effective until 2019 (not fine). I’ve previously opined...
Of the few economists honest about the economy, there has been a struggle to come up with an explanation for persisting economic struggles. That has led to a plethora of labels applied to the last decade. Brad Delong, for example, once called it the Lesser Depression . Larry Summers has revived Alan Hansen’s Secular Stagnation. I prefer Eurodollar Stagnation to that one, especially since Hansen had the thirties all wrong, but if given a choice the last ten years really should be labeled They Really Don’t Know What They Are Doing. The “they” is Economists in general and central bankers in particular. Even they aren’t so sure anymore,...
from the National Federation of Independent Business The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 3.7 points to 107.5 in November, the second highest reading in the 44-year history of the NFIB surveys (108.0 in July 1983). [editor’s note: Market expectation from Bloomberg/Econoday was between 104.0 to 105.9 (consensus 104.2) versus the actual reading of 107.5]. Said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan: We haven’t seen this kind of optimism in 34 years, and we’ve seen it only once in the 44 years that NFIB has been conducting this research. Small business owners are exuberant about the economy, and they are ready to lead th...