Here are the historical tendencies for forex pairs and commodities in the month of September. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall and by how much on average. Also check out: These Stocks Tend to Perform Well in September, if interested in stocks. Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do no reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics. Statistics are run on USD Index, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDMXN, NZDUSD for currencies and on light crude, natu...
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months. Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months. Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week. Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates. Let’s take a look...
Current Position of the Market SPX Long-term trend: The uptrend should continue after pausing for a correction. SPX Intermediate trend: SPX could make a new high before continuing its correcting into October/November. Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends. Market Overview: Until last week, analysis was relatively simple: SPX had made a top at 2491 which represented an intermediate peak. Since we are now in the decennial pattern ending in 7, and approaching October, the most bearish possib...
French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron is coming out arguing for the total federalization of Europe proposing that there should be a budget for the Eurozone of hundreds of billions of euros. Macron’s position is that this budget should represent several points of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Eurozone. It should be possible, Macron said, to collect money together in the markets and “allocate it with sufficient force” for all. He also has made it clear that the GDP of all euro area countries was €10.7 trillion in 2016 according to Eurostat. He makes it clear that the Eurozone is far too restrictive in its budget policy whe...
Talking Points: S&P 500 trying to trade to new record highs but may stall; data docket lacking ‘high’ impact events DAX is trying to reverse trend with a softening euro; ECB on Thursday could reinforce more upside FTSE 100 remains neither here nor there; no major data points this coming week Trading psychology can’t be understated, check out our guide – Building Confidence in Trading. S&P 500 On Friday, U.S. jobs data for August came in weaker than expected, with the headline NFP figure at +156k compared to the +180k estimate, while the July number was revised lower to +189k from +209k. Unemployment ticked higher to 4.4%...
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in July, 2017 for June, 2017. The month from there marked a significant change in tone for home builders. The change in tone starts with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and its failure to hold support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since its last such breakdown a year ago. Indeed, part of the seasonal trade in home builders revolves around changes in the summer. Various charts on home builders have me on alert for a more significant sell-off ahead. Source: StockCharts The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF finally broke down below support at its 50D...
Ok, so we all know what the Hurricane Harvey “silver lining” is, right? If not, you can read all about it here, or you can simply extrapolate from this Sunday soundbite from Mnuchin who spoke to Fox News: MNUCHIN SAYS HARVEY AID SHOULD BE TIED TO RAISING DEBT LIMIT — Walter White (@heisenbergrpt) September 3, 2017 Here are the full highlights from Axios: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told “Fox News Sunday” that Congress must tie Harvey recovery funding to a clean debt ceiling rise, or else the money intended for Harvey might not arrive. “Prior to Harvey I’ve said, you know, we have enough funding to go through the end of...
One style of the market that has outperformed, except in 2016, has been growth type equities. In 2016 value outperformed growth with a value outperformance burst subsequent to the election. Value’s outperformance essentially ended at the beginning of this year. Also, higher quality companies as measured by S&P Dow Jones Indices Dividend Aristocrats, mostly outperformed for the two and half year period from 2014 to mid 2016. As S&P notes, “the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats measure the performance of S&P 500 companies that have increased dividends every year for the last 25 consecutive years. The Index treats each con...
The auto sector’s joy ride in 2015, which continued in 2016, has been somewhat subdued in 2017. Not only that, the auto industry is undergoing a transition, courtesy of changing consumers’ preference toward SUVs and crossovers, and the necessity for manufacturing electric vehicles. According to an IHS Markit forecast, total global light vehicle sales will reach 93.5 million units in 2017, up 1.5% from 2016, with most of the global growth coming from China. In fact, automakers across the globe are partnering with local companies in China, the biggest car market in the world, where sales of electric vehicles are anticipated to increase. Re...
Amazon officially assumed control of Whole Foods Market on Monday and by noon, channel checks at WFM stores revealed that its new tech overlords had already slashed prices by nearly 50%, sending bonds of its grocery-chain rivals reeling as grocers confronted a new dilemma: either slash prices to the point of unprofitability, or hold the line and risk seeing sales evaporate. And as bonds of even highly rated grocery chains have underperformed this week,Bloomberg is questioning whether the WFM acquisition has fundamentally changed market dynamics in what was previously an island of stability in a retail sector beset by bankruptcies. Even be...