One style of the market that has outperformed, except in 2016, has been growth type equities. In 2016 value outperformed growth with a value outperformance burst subsequent to the election. Value’s outperformance essentially ended at the beginning of this year. Also, higher quality companies as measured by S&P Dow Jones Indices Dividend Aristocrats, mostly outperformed for the two and half year period from 2014 to mid 2016. As S&P notes, “the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats measure the performance of S&P 500 companies that have increased dividends every year for the last 25 consecutive years. The Index treats each con...
The auto sector’s joy ride in 2015, which continued in 2016, has been somewhat subdued in 2017. Not only that, the auto industry is undergoing a transition, courtesy of changing consumers’ preference toward SUVs and crossovers, and the necessity for manufacturing electric vehicles. According to an IHS Markit forecast, total global light vehicle sales will reach 93.5 million units in 2017, up 1.5% from 2016, with most of the global growth coming from China. In fact, automakers across the globe are partnering with local companies in China, the biggest car market in the world, where sales of electric vehicles are anticipated to increase. Re...
Amazon officially assumed control of Whole Foods Market on Monday and by noon, channel checks at WFM stores revealed that its new tech overlords had already slashed prices by nearly 50%, sending bonds of its grocery-chain rivals reeling as grocers confronted a new dilemma: either slash prices to the point of unprofitability, or hold the line and risk seeing sales evaporate. And as bonds of even highly rated grocery chains have underperformed this week,Bloomberg is questioning whether the WFM acquisition has fundamentally changed market dynamics in what was previously an island of stability in a retail sector beset by bankruptcies. Even be...
September is a mediocre month for stocks overall, but these stocks have still managed to climb at least 70% of the time and produced as much as 8% gains on average. Seasonality is the study of how assets perform at certain times of the year. The stocks below have shown a strong tendency to rise in September, historically. That doesn’t mean they will rally this September, though. Seasonality is best used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and specific trading strategies. Before getting into the best historical September stock performers, stocks as a whole (as gauged by S&P 500 index) tend to be a coin flip in September. Ove...
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral Its’ a big week for the Australian economy The Reserve Bank of Australia makes a monetary policy call, and GDP data will see daylight But will either really change the Australian Dollar backdrop? This week offers the Australian Dollar market some heavyweight economic news. But whether it will have the punch to shake the currency (and AUD/USD especially) out of its long torpor must be debatable. First up will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September monetary policy decision. That looms on Tuesday. Don’t expect fireworks. There is held to be no chance whatsoever that the record-low, 1.5...
How many times have we heard this one: “He/she/they caused me to blow up my account”? Blaming someone else for your losses. Pretty much every novice trader in the world goes through this phase, and many experienced traders as well. Now I’m going to let you in on a secret that will save you thousands or even millions if you will listen and heed this warning. Everyone loses from time to time. It’s an inevitable fact. No one, and I mean no one will ever win 100% of the time. Here’s another secret that many traders overlook. Winning percentage has absolutely no bearing on whether one makes money or loses money over time. You can win on...
Within the Federal Reserve sometime in 1996, a discussion took place among FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members regarding the subject of inflation targeting. Federal Reserve District Governor (San Francisco) Janet Yellen believed that a little inflation “greases the wheels” of the labor market. Her preferred “target” was 2%. She asked Chairman (at the time) Alan Greenspan his preference. The Chairman replied. “I would say the number is zero, if inflation is properly measured.” On the surface, it might seem that Chairman Greenspan is indicating that no inflation is preferable to “a littleR...
The broader market was cast down by a host of geopolitical and political concerns in August. Though the month ended with the release of upbeat Q2 GDP growth data, the awful Hurricane Harvey, tensions with North Korea, Trump’s warnings of a Government shutdown, overvaluation concerns and some downbeat economic releases snapped the solid momentum of the broader market. Against this backdrop, let’s discuss the ETF areas that still emerged winners in August and those that were hit hard. The following returns are of one month (as of Aug 31, 2017). Winners iPath Bloomberg Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN (JJN – Free Report) — Up 17....
The British pound has been very volatile over the last several weeks, and as we roll into September we should see a significant amount of volume jump into the marketplace. I think that we will more than likely see a significant amount of choppiness, and I don’t expect some type of massive move in the short term. I think there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the British economy, and with the Federal Reserve looking a bit soft after the hurricane in Texas, I think this market might essentially be “dead money” in general. That’s not to say that we can’t go higher or lower, I just don’t think that we go very far. Short-term tra...
USDCAD broke below 1.2413 support, indicating that the downtrend from 1.3793 has resumed. A further decline could be expected in a couple of weeks and the next target would be at 1.2050. Key resistance is at 1.2778, only a break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend....