With the market now stuck in the “Icarus Rally” melt-up predicted earlier in the year by BofA Michael Hartnett, in which EFTs, algos and desperate carbon-based hedge fund managers are all chasing performance, i.e. beta, in the last weeks of the year, at least until the inevitable “Humpty Dumpty great fall“, some have been naive enough to ask just how overvalued are stocks as of this moment. Yesterday we showed one answer, when according to Goldman Sachs, the average stock is in the 88th percentile of all historical valuations and 98% from if one uses median stocks to eliminate huge outliers such as Apple; the nu...
The world’s second-largest economy, China, sustained growth in the third quarter following improved factory output and consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded at 6.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, same as predicted and 0.1 percent lower than the first half of the year growth of 6.9 percent. Retail sales surged 10.3 percent from a year ago in September, indicating robust consumer spending and growing economy. Also, factory output grew 6.6 percent last month while fixed-asset investment jumped 7.5 percent in the first nine months of 2017. The economy entered the final quarter of the year with a remarkable growth, even w...
EUR/USD rebounded from 1.1730 after approaching 1.1669 support, indicating that the short term downtrend from 1.1879 is complete. Further rise to test 1.1879 resistance could be expected in the coming days, a breakout of this level could trigger further bullish movement towards next resistance level at 1.2029. Near term support is at 1.1730, only a breakdown below this level could bring price back to test the key support at 1.1662 (Aug 17 low)....
It’s not a ‘Rodney Dangerfield’ market – as it gets too much respect. Very smart analysts sum it up by saying ‘hallelujah’ or even calling it the ‘greatest bull market ever’. That’s the case ‘even if’ the market holds up and doesn’t break. However in an internal way the market has been correcting rotationally; and it’s still the basic underlying theme at the moment (look at the Oscillators and A/D line). This matters, as aside an ‘event’ (which we expected would ultimately occur for IBM’s transition as discussed last night and occasionally for two ...
Warning: I’m going to jump all over the show today. Live with it. When your umbilical cord was severed, and you’d only just entered this world, you had approximately 100 billion brain cells. At some point in the future (hopefully very distant), an old man in sturdy boots and a trench coat will throw dirt on you and there’ll be a whole lot less. Apparently it’s like an expiring option. Our cells fizzle and die slowly during the course of our life and then much more rapidly until we’re gone. It’s basically Black and Scholes inside our skulls. The thing is, based on the sheer number of neurons we arrive on this planet with, we shoul...
Ethereum price was rising steadily before and during the Byzantium fork. It even managed to touch the 350 USD level. Since then, it dropped briefly below 300 to touch a low of 287 USD. Even with this recent drop, we maintain a Bullish stance on Ethereum price, even with the recent price movement. Here is why. First and foremost, the Chart setup Ethereum price has been steadily making higher lows, even in its recent drop, it managed to bounce right off the diagonal dark blue support line. This shows investors and traders showed up and picked up Ether at what they believe was a decent entry. The chart below also shows that after falling off t...
Who doesn’t want to get as lucky as Warren Buffett in the investment world? Since Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s (BRK-B – Free Report) inception, the holding company has yielded a stellar return of nearly 21%. Buffett’s investing style has always remained simple: buy shares in great companies and hold them for a significant period of time. These companies have reliable business models that have stood the test of time. They also generate plenty of cash and provide dividends, which are indicators of a strong and sustainable business. Such companies tend to come from sectors such as financials, technology, and consumer discretionary. T...
Housing construction continues to slow in 2017, dragged down by fewer multi-family projects. Total permits and starts have essentially flatlined since 2015, a further slowdown from one already slowdown. The single-family market is still growing but at a historically tepid pace, leaving the pace of construction overall to be dictated by weakness in apartment development. In September 2017, new permits for multi-family structures dropped on a seasonally-adjusted basis to 360k from a significantly revised (downward) 436k in August. The 6-month average, a better measure smoothing out very high monthly variations in this series, has been less than...
Housing construction continues to slow in 2017, dragged down by fewer multi-family projects. Total permits and starts have essentially flatlined since 2015, a further slowdown from one already slowdown. The single-family market is still growing but at a historically tepid pace, leaving the pace of construction overall to be dictated by weakness in apartment development. In September 2017, new permits for multi-family structures dropped on a seasonally-adjusted basis to 360k from a significantly revised (downward) 436k in August. The 6-month average, a better measure smoothing out very high monthly variations in this series, has been less than...
The gold industry has been built on the leveraging of debt and energy. The days of using human and animal labor to produce the precious yellow metal are long gone. While some gold is still mined the old fashion way, the overwhelming majority is produced by using colossal-sized mining equipment, massive amounts of capital, energy, and materials. Thus, the global gold supply comes via a very complex industry with a lot of moving parts. When one of these critical parts are in short supply or removed, then the entire gold supply system disintegrates. An example of one of the newest complex gold mines in the world is the Pueblo Viejo Mine in the...