As if dealing with Harvey wasn’t enough, Hurricane Irma (his not so distant cousin) has already wreaked havoc along its path through the Caribbean. It now looks to do a lot more damage. Hurricane Jose, Irma’s younger brother, is also lurking. In fact, Irma is heading right to Florida, targeting President Trumps federally insured Mar a Largo beachfront estate otherwise known as White House South. Certain Republicans think the storm’s path is the result of divine intervention for Trumps treasonous deal with democrats to raise the debt ceiling for another three months. Regardless, the impact to the markets has been somewhat predictable and...
The latest index reading came in at 17.8, down from 19.2 the previous week. The RecessionAlert Twitter Feed, @RecessionAlert2, had an interesting observation about the indicator levels in February. RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. RecessionAlert emphasizes that WLEI is a growth index and its data is no more than a week old, as is ECRI’s WLIg. ...
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets. Big Picture September 10 Last week, I saw the best possi...
Since July 11, gold has been in a short-term upward trend. The yellow metal has gained more than 8 percent since then until the end of August, mainly thanks to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, as one can see in the chart below. Chart 1: Gold prices (yellow line, left axis, London P.M. fix) and the U.S. dollar index (red line, right axis, trade weighted index against major currencies). The U.S. dollar index declined because of political turmoil in the Trump administration and the narrowing divergence between the U.S. and the Eurozone economy. Actually, the economic growth in the latter outpaced the former expansion in the first half of t...
Given a world rife these days with natural disasters, from hurricanes Harvey and Irma, to Mexico’s monstrous quake and the madman of the NorK, Gold continues to roll higher, now having recorded “higher highs” in seven of the past eight weeks. High times indeed, for as in the above panel we see that Gold is further above where ’twas at this time a year ago, and moreover seems on a beeline to at least test 2016’s high at the storied command post of Base Camp 1377. With Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” now at 29 points, price may well make that climb within a week’s time, having settled...
On Friday, GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast both posted third-quarter GDP estimates. GDPNow stands at 3.0%. The Nowcast is at 2.1%. Inquiring minds may be wondering what Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will do to their models. First, let’s review the latest forecasts. GDPNow Forecast: 3.0 Percent — September 8, 2017 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.0 percent on September 8, up from 2.9 percent on September 6. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.87 percentage points to 0.94 percentage points aft...
GBP/USD had a tense week amid tense Brexit negotiations but came out on top. The upcoming week features top-tier inflation and jobs indicators, as well as the BOE decision. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The pound enjoyed the talk about a soft Brexit, but perhaps more importantly, a weak US dollar. UK data helped as well: house prices are on the rise once again, according to the Halifax HPI. The trade deficit is narrower and PMIs are OK, not falling. Updates: GBP/USD daily chart with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge: Inflation report: Tuesday, 8:30. After a few months of accelerate...
For the Modern Family, Friday was not much more than a continuation of the consolidation that had been going on since Tuesday. There were some notable exceptions like IYT which had a strong day on Friday, closed of the day and the high of the week and over its 50-DMA. Acually, a strong Friday is quite normal for IYT. As you’ll discover below, IYT has a history of doing well on Friday, especially when it closes up on Thursday. The other notable deviant from a week of consolidation was KRE which spent the week falling. Though major support. Since Friday was quiet, I’ve decided to share some stats that I like to watch that track which instru...
The latest release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 141.8, down from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.69%, down from 4.36% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.9, also down from the previous week. “Finding the Root Cause of Recessions” ECRI’s recent headline article digs into the causes of recent recessions after the 2008 financial crisis. Specifically, comparisons are made between US and Japanese economic growth, economic vulnerability, and exogenous shocks. ECRI concludes that while US GDP has been extremely...
We have a normal data calendar. Central to stock market prospects is the resolution of several key policy issues. The possible outcomes have a wide range of market impacts, from fear to a major boost in corporate earnings. The debt limit/Harvey aid deal between President Trump and Democrats was a surprise to most. Still digesting the implications, the punditry will be wondering: Have the odds improved for a market-friendly policy agenda? Last Week Recap My expectation that of a focus on what might go wrong was partly correct. Then the hurricane news and political reactions became the lead stories. There was little market-moving data. The Stor...