Flood Schmud, Missiles Schmissiles, Jobs Schmobs… Gold gained the most after today’s dismal jobs data… After a crazy run the last few days into month-end, Nasdaq slipped notably lower after the pitiful payrolls print… All major indices closed lower post payrolls. Stocks gained on the day though, thanks to overnight pumping, with Trannies tumbling into the close to leave small caps best on the day. Nasdaq record high close… And despite Hurricane Harvey, North Korean Missiles, and Dismal Jobs, stocks soared on the week… A crazy week: Nasdaq +2.75% – best week since Dec 2016 S&P +1.5% ...
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ? Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indices are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are showing growth, trends are slowing growth – but the intensity is different. Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index: ? Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth): Weekly Leading Index Slips EC...
OVER 300 NEW COINS REACHED $1MM MARKET CAP IN 2017 After the massive Bitcoin price surge in November 2013, the popularity of launching new cryptocurrencies took off along with it. In fact, if you go back at historical snapshots around that time, you’ll see that there were literally hundreds of new coins available to mine and buy. Here’s one from November 2014 – a time when there were only 32 coins that were worth more than $1 million in market cap, and 354 coins that were worth less than $50,000, usually trading for tiny fractions of a cent. It seems like everyone and their dog were launching cryptocurrencies back then, even if they w...
If you ever want to sound foolish during your next television interview on the markets, tell them that the market is approaching a Fibonacci level and will do X when it gets there. It is sort of like doing a DIY network interview and saying the house will have four bedrooms because you are using a 32-ounce hammer. Both the hammer and Fibonacci are tools used in their respective fields. A hammer is used in carpentry to, among other things, frame a house. A Fibonacci – usually a Fibonacci retracement – is used in investment analysis to frame the market’s recent move. Obligatory definitions Here is the section where we have t...
The Federal Trade Commission has cleared the merger between Amazon and Whole Foods, sparking yet more fears that the retail giant is becoming too big. Even as commercial enterprises adjust, politicians and bureaucrats in America, Europe, and elsewhere are sounding the alarm about how big companies like Amazon and Google are shutting out smaller competitors and hogging the marketplace. But their worries are misplaced: The market will see to Amazon just as Amazon saw to its predecessors. If a company delivers huge amounts of value to consumers at a price that suits them and revolutionizes the way we do business, government can see it as a pro...
(Audio length 00:09:18) After a disappointing jobs number hit the wire we saw some initial moves in the markets that were quickly reversed. Chris Temple joins me to discuss why he thinks the markets are looking past the jobs number to Fed expectations and potential spending, including infrastructure initiatives....
The payroll report for August 2017 thoroughly disappointed. The monthly change for the headline Establishment Survey was just +156k. The BLS also revised lower the headline estimate in each of the previous two months, estimating for July a gain of only +189k. The 6-month average, which matters more given the noisiness of the statistic, is just +160k or about the same as when the Federal Reserve contemplated starting a third round of QE back in 2012. Even I had expected that there would be some improvement in the labor market trend by now. The near-recession of 2015-16 finished nearly a year and a half ago, and though labor conditions typicall...
Founded in 1959, OppenheimerFunds currently has $242 billion worth of assets under management (as of Jul 31, 2017) invested in 89 mutual funds across a wide range of categories including equity, fixed income and alternative securities, and multi asset funds. With over 2,000 employees including 170 investment professionals, the company serves clients, including individual investors and institutional investors and financial advisors, across 77 countries. OppenheimerFunds is a subsidiary of MassMutual, which is one of the leading asset managers with more than $600 billion assets under management along with its affiliates. Below we share with you...
We’ve addressed our feelings on the uselessness of CAPE before but I am seeing it being used frequently once again so it is time to revisit…. “Davidson” submits: CAPE has an issue which misses a significant market perception. The issue is earnings are adjusted for inflation which causes the CAPE ratio to rise over time. The market already makes an adjustment for inflation and is why market P/E ratios have a long term range that is about the same for the past 70yrs. That range is 7-8 at lows during heavy inflation to about 20-25 at market peaks. The better method for market pricing is to apply Knut Wicksell’s ‘Natural Rate’. To...
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for August. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.8 percent, an increase of 2.5 percent from 56.3 the previous month. Today’s headline number was above the Investing.com forecast of 56.5 percent. Here is the key analysis from the report: “The August PMI® registered 58.8 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the July reading of 56.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.3 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the July reading of 60.4 percent. The Production Index registered 61 percent, a 0.4 ...