Ask a number of analysts what is the secret to Amazon’s retail (if not overall) success, and 9 out of 10 times the answer will be its meticulous, seamless, and incredibly efficient distribution and logistics system. Or, as Credit Suisse puts it, Amazon (AMZN) has stumbled on (really created) a new distribution model: a “pull” (or demand) model in which the Distribution Center is at the center of the shopping/retail experience, vastly different from the old “push” model, which centered around the retail store. It’s also what Credit Suisse calls the “Amazon Effect”, and is the biggest (not so) sec...
In today’s edition of Market Week in Review, Consulting Director Sophie Antal Gilbert chatted with Kara Ng, senior quantitative investment strategy analyst, about the anticipated economic impacts to the U.S. from Hurricane Harvey, which caused untold destruction in Texas and Louisiana earlier this week. Economic and financial market implications of Harvey “Our hearts go out to everyone who was directly or indirectly impacted by this event,” Ng said. She then noted that from a market perspective, natural disasters typically cause volatility in economic data—but their overall impact is muted. She expects this to be the case with Harvey ...
It was a tumultuous month politically, economically, and meteorologically. The devastating destruction left in the wake of Hurricane Harvey’s 130 mile per hour winds and 50+ inches of rain displaced more than 30,000 people in Texas, destroyed upwards of 40,000 homes, and created estimated damages of $190 billion, making this storm the costliest hurricane in history (see table below). But Hurricane Harvey wasn’t the only destructive force wreaking havoc on Americans. There were numerous geopolitical storms raining down over the newswires as well, including the following: North Korea Nuclear Standoff: The war of words between North Korean ...
During the middle 2000’s, one more curious economic extreme presented itself in an otherwise ocean of extremes. Though economists were still thinking about the Great “Moderation”, the trend for the Personal Savings Rate was anything but moderate, indicated a distinct lack of modesty on the part of consumers. In early 2006, the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculated that the rate had been negative for all of 2005. It was the first time in seventy years that had happened in the US. As puzzling as that was for economists, it happened again in 2006. Unsure of what to make of it, the Wall Street Journal asked in July 2007 Is The Negative...
“Davidson” submits: US Household Survey Employment falls a little, but remains on trend from 2009. Light Weight Vehicle Sales lower, some indicating a Harvey impact. Temp Employment and Job Openings, both precursors to higher full-time employment, continue to reach higher levels. Nothing is more telling than Real Personal Disposable Income and Real Retail and Food Service Sales reaching all time records. The US economy continues to operate at a good pace and in spite of many expressing concerns of a economic/market correction the next few months, there no evidence that we will see an economic correction in the near future. The best guess ...
Litecoin price broke out above its 3 months ascending channel. This is very Bullish for Litecoin price which will now benefit from even more positive investors’ attention. When we published our artivle yesterday, we mentioned that Litecoin price is set up to benefit from 3 factors: An awesome chart set up, which is supported by an all time high in transactions, a strengthening community and a superior scalability. We said: Uncertainty was good for Litecoin price and will probably continue to be as scalability issues remain a challenge with other Crypto currencies. Litecoin is also set now to benefit from the advantages of the Lightning N...
The U.S. aerospace and defense stocks have seen significant upward trends so far this year, primarily on the back of increasing geopolitical uncertainties worldwide. While a number of industry bellwethers posted encouraging results, the Aerospace sector also reaped the benefits. This impressive performance is anticipated to continue for the remaining half of the year as well, driven by the same factors which stoked the sector’s robust growth year to date. Sector Behemoths Impress in Q2 Many sector behemoths have gained significantly year to date and posted improved earnings during the second quarter. In the Aerospace and Defense space, 90...
As made clear in my previous articles, I see nothing to indicate a bear market is imminent. But the number of trailing stops I have now placed in my family and client portfolios clearly shows my concern for the likelihood of a correction (not a new bear) in the ongoing bull. Bull markets don’t die of old age. Never have. Which is why the calls for an end to the bull in 2015, 2016 and 2017 were and likely still are off base. But like any living, breathing thing – like, say, a real-life bull – as it gets older it gets winded more easily and must take more breathers before gaining the strength to charge ahead. Please note the massive ...
The October natural gas contract may have closed just a percent higher on the day, but the signal the natural gas market provided as a whole was far stronger. On Friday afternoons we send out our Pre-Close Update which both forecasts the weather for the next few weeks that is expected to impact the natural gas market and conducts a technical analysis to see what price action may be indicating. Our last page of the report today we found to be especially insightful today. This information came after our weather-driven analysis, which includes Gas Weighted Degree Day forecasts for traders to either input into their own models or use to visuali...