Durable goods orders were up a seasonally-adjusted 6.5% in the month of June 2017. Nearly all of that gain, however, was due to a jump (131%) in new orders for civilian aircraft. That meant demand for transportation equipment, a highly volatile segment, rose 19% in the month. Excluding all that, durable goods were up just 0.2% month-over-month. Sentiment indicators like the ISM Manufacturing PMI suggest ebullient conditions that just aren’t matched by activity levels. Halfway through 2017, that shouldn’t any longer be the case. You can understand some lingering problems especially given the nature of the downturn/manufacturing recession, ...
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX – Free Report) released its third quarter fiscal 2017 financial results, posting non-GAAP earnings of 55 cents per share and revenues of $5.7 billion. Currently, SBUX is a #3 (Hold), and is down a slight 0.59% to $59.14 per share in trading shortly after its earnings report was released. Starbucks: Matched earnings estimates. The coffee giant reported earnings of 55 cents per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 55 cents per share. This number excludes 8 cents from non-recurring items. Matched revenue estimate. The company saw consolidated net revenue figures of $5.7 billion, coming in-line with our c...
EURUSD 30 min 4 Hours Daily My Bias: long term bearishWave Structure: downward impulse waveLong term wave count: lower in wave (3) redImportant risk events: EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m. USD: Advance GDP q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Hello and good evening to you all. After a rally into the trend line as expected, the price structure has now completed a five wave rally in wave ‘v’ pink. Last night the target for a top was set at 1.1782. The the overnight high reached 1.1776 and then sold off in a possible impulsive wave structure. I have labelled that decline with wave ‘i’ pink. With the general expectation...
In Shakespeare’s Much Ado About Nothing, Benedick begins as a man who vehemently claims he shall never marry only to become one who single-mindedly intends on marrying Beatrice. When Beatrice asks him to murder Claudio, he protests, but ultimately engages Claudio in confrontation for the sake of his love. This morning, when Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Nasdaq opened to new highs, many bears who claimed they’d never buy, bought today. Then the market asked the bears to prove their love and stick around, even if the market got murdered. The flask in Benedick’s hand holds the “medicine” the bears needed to feel drunk enough to th...
Heads Up: Retail Spending Momentum Turns Negative (Note: The Vice Index is lagged: recent vice spending pullbacks are reflected in the chart above starting June.) Consumer Spending Slowing Down Regular readers know the Vice Index is the real way to measure the breadth of the U.S. consumer. It factors in many disposable spending habits like alcohol, marijuana, prostitution and gambling. Everyone knows consumer spending (including disposable spending) is the lifeblood of the US economy. There are different but related measurements: Disposable Income is personal income minus taxes. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is disposable income min...
Huge breakdown for the Transports, but barely a peep out of the Industrials. It isn’t a good sign for the broad market, and coming at a time when seasonal weakness is just starting. The short-term trend has probably peaked. Something was up with the market today right from the open. The bullish percents were all pointing lower. The Leader List Strong: Energy, Retail. Weak: too many to mention them all. Transports, Pharmaceuticals broke down below their 50-day averages. Yesterday I wondered whether this Energy rally was for real. Well this now looks promising. This doesn’t look good. Health Care dropped off the leader list. Semicon...
The Nikkei managed to reverse the majority of the days trend with an eventual positive close. It was not that great (+0.15%) but a positive close none the less and as the yen played just under the 112 handle, this helped the move at the close. The FED played its part initially but as the trading day wore on dealers are starting to question the recent run on the Euro especially as the watched the Swissy breaking new lows. We saw the Swiss Franc trade back to 2015 lows as talk surrounds a move away from the region in favour of the USD. Shanghai saw a similar performance to Japan with a small (+0.05%) positive close. The Hang Seng again the bett...
“Davidson” submits: CAB hit new high this week, the earnings surge predicted by this index 14mos ago in US Industrial Sector is being reported today. Firms such as Chart Inds are providing insight to how strong the recovery has been from the 2014-2016 Industrial Recession which occurred as a result of the strong US$. The US$ further weakened overnight and hit new 2yr lows. US Industries which export should continue to reflect earnings surprises. From Chart Inds 2Q17 Press Release: “E&C orders increased 70% over the first quarter of 2017, driven by natural gas demand in both petrochemical and LNG export projects. Specifically, order ...
“Seek the Lord, all you humble of the land, who have observed his law; Seek justice, seek humility; And perhaps you will be sheltered on the day of the Lord’s justice. This was the triumphal city, high and mighty, Saying to herself, ‘I am the one, and none dare stand beside me.’ How desolate now has she become, a place fit only for wild beasts. Those who pass by her scoff, and shake their heads at her ruin.” Zephaniah 2:3,15 I have a feeling that we are going to be seeing some real fireworks in the precious metals before the end of the year. But feelings really do not count in markets. But it is there, tempting my trading di...
No fundamental catalyst for today’s tech wreck (just as there wasn’t last time), but many people noted the coincidental timing of JPM’s Kolanovic note on Vol fragilities coincided with the start of the pain… Liquidity collapsed leaving many to think… Since The Fed statement, gold is the biggest winner… US equity markets suffered their worst day since June (with Trannies worst day since Brexit)… The Dow was the only index green on the day despite the ramp… VIX spiked above 11… Nasdaq VIX spiked back above 17 intraday and back above Russell 2000 vol.. Jeffrey Gundlach’s DoubleLine Capi...