Earlier today the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on the latest Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let’s now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts below the gray line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index for All Commodities, chained in today’s dollar value. This gives us the “real” durable goods orders per capita and thus a...
After two surprisingly strong auctions earlier in the week, when the Treasury sold both 2 and 5 Year paper to unexpectedly brisk demand ahead of the FOMC meeting, which bounced despite a record high short interest in 2Y futs, moments ago the last auction of the week closed when $28 billion in 7 Year paper was sold at a high yield of 2.126%, tailing the When Issued 2.122%, and the highest yield since 2.215% in March. The internals were mediocre, with the bid-to-cover of 2.54 better than last month’s 2.461%, if right on top of the six auction average of 2.54%. Indirect bidders took down 67.7%, also better than last month’s 67.4%...
Elliott Wave Forecast GBP/USD Short Term Bearish trend is present in GBP/USD currency pair, 15 minutes chart. As I have suggested a few hours ago, during my daily Forex Live Trading Room session, the price of GBP/USD currency pair is falling down on a short-term basis to create a Bearish Impulse Elliott wave pattern and Spot Forex traders should consider taking a possible sell trading chance. Strong key resistance level is present at 1.3134 price level which is the ending point of bearish wave i leg. In my opinion, the price action in GBP/USD currency pair has completed Bullish wave iv Zig Zag corrective wave and currently moving downwards to...
Part-way through earnings season, the outlook remains bright. Many of the most high-quality dividend stocks have beat expectations, and corporate earnings seem to be growing at a rate higher than previous expectations (although time will tell if this trend holds). On July 26, General Dynamics (GD) reported earnings for the three-month period ending July 2, 2017. General Dynamics is a well-known dividend stock, partially due to its long dividend history. The company’s annual dividend payments have increased for 26 years, making it one of the ‘youngest’ members of the Dividend Aristocrats – a group of dividend stocks with 25+ years of c...
USD/CAD Daily Chart Technical Outlook: USD/CAD reversed sharply today off confluence support at 1.2415 (low was 1.2413) – this level is defined by a long-term 61.8% ext of the broader decline off the 2016 high and converges on a parallel support extending off the 9/21 swing low (red). Note that daily momentum is also attempting to break back above the 30-mark and highlights the risk for a near-term recovery in price. Initial resistance is eyed at the medina-line (currently around the 1.26-handle) and is backed by 1.2723/39. A breach there would be needed to suggest a more significant recovery is underway. If price breaks lower from ...
Bloomberg interviewed Alicia Munnell from the Boston College Center for Retirement Research. She of course has come to be a thought leader for what ails the Social Security system. Shockingly it boils down to three things; cutting benefits, raising the cap one way or another or some combo of both. I’ve framed it numerous times by saying that something will have to give. Included in there is what I will bluntly call nonsense about replacement rates as in how much of someone’s income Social Security is intended to replace. There was talk in the interview about replacement rate dropping from 36% to 27% over some long period of time. It’s...
The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved. The unadjusted three month rolling average improved. .Analyst Opinion of the Durable Goods Situation Our analysis is more positive than the headlines as we see improvement this month. Civilian aircraft were the main headwind this month. If one removes aircraft – this is a soft report. This series has wide swings monthly so our primary metric is the unadjusted three month rolling average which improved. Econintersect Analysis: unadjusted new orders growth accelerated 8.8 % (after accelerating a revised 5.9 % the previous month) month-over-month and is up 14.7 % year-over-year. t...
The CRB Index gapped higher today and it follows a gap higher opening on Tuesday, which has not been filled. Today’s gains lift the commodity index to a trendline drawn off the January and February highs and catches the high from late May. It intersects today near 181.35 and the high has been a little over 181.17. This is depicted on the Great Graphic made on Bloomberg, with five and 20-day moving averages added. Today’s advance it being led by cocoa (5.2%), orange juice (2.2%), gasoline (1.5%) and sugar (1.45%). Today’s 0.8% rise in the CRB index appears to be a function of breadth, as nearly all the individual commod...
Shares of AstraZeneca (AZN) are dropping sharply after the company said its MYSTIC trial failed to show its two-drug combination extended progression-free survival compared with standard-of-care chemotherapy for lung cancer patients. Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez downgraded the stock to Market Perform following the news, while noting that this could have a negative read-through for Bristol-Myers (BMY), which is testing a similar combination. MYSTIC TRIAL: AstraZeneca has announced progression-free survival, or PFS, results for the Phase III MYSTIC trial, which is testing Imfinzi monotherapy or Imfinzi in combination with tremelimumab versu...
In what is likely to provide a big boost to second quarter GDP numbers, wholesale and retail inventories surged in June according to Advance Indicators from the Census Department. The advance numbers also point to a narrowing of the trade deficit which will add a small bit to second quarter GDP. Advance Indicators Advance Trade Advance Inventories This inventory build is unwarranted in light of actual retail sales. These numbers will likely boost second quarter GDP substantially. Expect a substantial payback in the third quarter. I will have an estimate later today....