How should electricity from wind turbines and solar panels be evaluated? Should it be evaluated as if these devices are stand-alone devices? Or do these devices provide electricity that is of such low quality, because of its intermittency and other factors, that we should recognize the need for supporting services associated with actually putting the electricity on the grid? This question comes up in many types of evaluations, including Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI), Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), and Energy Payback Period (EPP). I recently gave a talk called The Problem of Properly Evaluating Intermitt...
Last week’s new high brought us closer to our projection and, as long as we do not see contradictory patterns, another high; and perhaps two more can be expected. Whether it’s one or two may depend on next week’s action. Friday’s minor correction found support where it should have and closed well, but the Globex dipped a couple of points right after the close. If a deeper correction is experienced and, if we go too deep, it will take longer to get back into an uptrend, and with the 20-wk cycle due to bottom in mid-August, what remains of the bullish time frame is getting shorter and shorter. On the other hand, a dip in Globex on Fr...
2017 is an incredible year for cryptocurrencies. Apart from huge price increases there has been lots of volatility. For traditional investors not familiar with cryptocurrencies it must feel like a huge casino. Nothing is further from the truth. The fact of the matter is that it is important to have a good understanding of why, how and which cryptocurrencies are moving. There is of course an important element of speculation, but much of the price moves in crypto land also make sense. That is why we wrote earlier this year 10 Investment Tips For Cryptocurrencies Investing. As a sidenote, note that our Bitcoin price forecast for 2017 was alr...
Talking Points: NZ Finance Minister says strong NZD reflects strong economic fundamentals. NZD/USD trades at a 10-month high. Latest rally may need to consolidate before attacking fresh highs. Fundamental Forecast for NZD: Neutral The NZD got a fresh shot in the arm Friday after Finance Minister Steven Joyce said that he was concerned about the strength of the Kiwi and that it highlights the strength of the New Zealand economy and the country’s robust export markets. Speaking to Bloomberg, Joyce said that he did not have an opinion on the NZD in contrast to comments from RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle who talked down any notion of a ra...
Every time the monthly inflation numbers are released, central bankers seem to have an excuse for why their inflation targets are not met. The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate last week in defiance of declining inflation rates. The Bank’s Governor Poloz cited that inflation was held down by “temporary “ factors, i.e. a drop-in electricity costs in Ontario and lower food costs due to intense retail competition. Canada’s June CPI fell 0.1% from May; year over year the rate fell from 1.3% to 1%. This is a continuation of a decline in the core rate over the past year (Figure 1). Figure 1 Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen also finds t...
Listen, here’s the thing… judging by my inbox, there are at least four readers who did not appreciate my three-word explanation for why the dollar is in the doldrums. Here’s that explanation, as presented in Friday’s “The Week In Charts” post: Too much treason. Besides being hilarious, that is in fact the reason for this: “Long USD” was supposed to be one of 2017’s “no brainer” trades. That call rested on the rather dubious assumption that Donald Trump would be able to swiftly implement his growth-friendly agenda. As it turns out, being a complete government neophyte and committing treason turned out to be a bad comb...
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 11 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: · Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months. · Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months. · Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week. · Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates. Let’s take...
Three months ago (April) we covered the reasons we primarily invest in junior exploration companies. We promised to follow up with some criteria we follow in attempting to pick winners. Here are five things we look for when evaluating and selecting junior exploration companies. Management has a track record and experience. There is a decent number of executives in the junior industry that were part of or led a company to an acquisition. If they have done it before then they know what needs to be done in order to do it again. If management has not been involved in a transaction, check to see if they have discovered a deposit or expanded a re...
t has been very quiet in recent months in markets. Almost every market has been moving without major volatility. That could be ending soon, though, with new major market trends triggered by the two leading currencies: the Euro and the U.S. Dollar. This thesis and, in general, our market vision, is based on what we tend to callintermarket dynamics. That is the phenomenon of a market starting a strong trend, and, with that, triggering trends in other markets. Great examples of intermarket dynamics include the huge breakout in the U.S. dollar in 2014 which triggered an enormous drop in the price of crude oil and, consequently, made globa...
Since the biotechnology bubble burst in 2015, resulting in a 40% bear market, something has been building that I’ve been waiting several quarters for — a resumption of the great, long-term bull market. This week, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index ETF [IBB] surmounted a closing level that takes back half of its losses. I think we have a lot more room to go, and maybe even new highs eventually. But the rules are different this time in this second big wave of the bio bull. You can’t simply ride the next hot tip or momentum play. Your research and stock selection must have certain discipline, or else you’ll get burned. Here I...