The press regularly reminds us that we live in a world teeming with dangerous addictions. They include: drinking, drugs, sex, and gambling. The reality is that most people enjoy these activities and incorporate them into their lives without becoming addicted. In this piece, I examine what is happening in gambling by region and type with an industry expert. Warwick Bartlett is the Chief Executive of the Global Betting and Gaming Consultancy (GBGC). GBGC is one of the largest and most credible specialists on gambling in the world. The company has worked with or supplied information from its database to over 500 clients. We start with some his...
In the Currency Strength table, the CAD was the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the GBP and AUD losing 3 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 1 point. As mentioned in the previous week several Neutral currencies were very close to becoming Weak currencies and we will look at these in more detail. There is also a Weak currency that changed classification. 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the R...
EM FX was mixed on Friday, but largely firmer over the entire week. Top performers were BRL, KRW, and ZAR, while the worst were ARS, MXN, and RUB. The FOMC meeting this week poses some potential risks to the global liquidity story that’s supporting EM. Within EM, the low inflation/easy monetary policy narrative should continue with data and events this week. Singapore reports June CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 0.7% y/y vs. 1.4% in May. It then reports June IP Wednesday, which is expected to rise 6.5% y/y vs. 5.0% in May. Price pressures remain low while the real sector has been a bit sluggish. As such, the MAS may maintain its...
Bulls were not to give up the breakout gains from earlier in the week and with the exception of the Russell 2000 it was a decent finish for markets. Action in the Russell 2000 was only disappointing because it was unable to hold on to early day gains. The spike high may mark resistance over the coming days as Friday’s candlestick was a typical reversal marker. Technicals are healthy, although the index is underperforming relative to Tech and Large Caps. Large Caps had best of the action. The S&P finished above its open while the Dow Industrials clung on to its breakout. The Nasdaq held its ground and Tech average...
The S&P 500 trades at an elevated valuation on almost every metric. The forward P/E multiple of the S&P 500 has risen by 80% since 2011 (to 18x) and now trades at the 89th percentile compared with the past 40 years while the typical stock is at the 99th percentile of historical valuation. That’s from Goldman and it serves as a nice intro to what’s become something of a tradition here at HR: a periodic public service announcement about what it is exactly that you are buying into if you’re getting long US equities at these levels. These quick, chart-heavy posts are a nice break from some of our more esoteric pieces. And in that ...
NFLX Stock Predictions Summary: As one of the famous FANG stocks, Netflix enjoys a stratospheric valuation when compared to other technology tickers. Like Amazon and Facebook, Netflix is a growth-driven company. In spite of stiff competition, FANG stocks managed to establish themselves as long-term leaders in their chosen line of business. Unlike Amazon though, Netflix has made a successful global expansion. Its international subscriber count is now larger than in the U.S. This is a very strong reason to stay or go long NFLX. International expansion will keep this company’s strong growth momentum. NFLX has positive near-term and long-term a...
In the past few weeks and months we have seen some reports wherein it became clear Germany is actually selling some of its gold on a monthly basis. That’s an interesting phenomenon as it’s weird to see a country secretly repatriating its gold which it starts to sell shortly afterwards. There’s no doubt it must have been easier to start selling when it was still located in the foreign vaults, and just transfer the cash proceeds back to Berlin or the Bundesbank. But okay, the sales are pretty marginal as Germany ‘dumped’ just 120,000 ounces of gold in the past three months. A move from 108.6 million ounces to 108.48 million ounces i...
Last week I tumbled down the rabbit hole of quantitative finance, so this week I thought that I would take stock on some of the main themes. The continued woes of the greenback are probably the main story for markets at the moment. It is driven by a number of factors as far as I can see. Firstly, economic data in the U.S—in particular core inflation—have remained underwhelming, which have forced markets to roll back on their expectations for Fed rate hikes. September, which was a done deal only a few months ago, has now become a long shot. Secondly, just as the Fed’s hiking cycle potentially has hit a snag, other central banks have ...
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral The Australian Dollar is in something of a sweet spot Rate differentials, local data and Chinese growth all look more supportive However, the RBA is clearly watching it very closely at current, high levels Late last week the biggest near-term risk facing rampant Australian Dollar bulls became clear: it’s the currency’s own central bank. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle gave AUD/USD serious pause on Friday. He spoke in Adelaide and poured cold water on the idea that recent RBA discussions of Australia’s neutral interest rate presaged any prospect of a hike in the cou...
Over the last five trading days, major banks displayed a bearish trend. Though most banks which reported second-quarter 2017 results this week managed to beat estimates, concerns over the underlying weakness shadowed the optimism. Results demonstrated an upswing in loans and improved margins. However, lower treasury yields curbed the benefits. Additionally, rise in deposit balances and lower provisions driven by reserve releases in the Oil & Gas loan portfolio were impressive. Investment banking fees were favorable, but fixed income and equity trading slumped during the quarter. Also, higher funding costs and decline in mortgage originati...